Interesting work done by Stefan Herzog & Hertwig, R. (2009) on how to apply a form of wisdom of crowds, but when there is only one person. They call it dialectic bootstrapping.
The idea is that when you have to make an estimate of a potential value, such as a date, a numeric value a percentage etc, you follow this procedure:
1. Make your first estimate. This should be done in the way you would normally make an estimate; with as much thought and consideration you would normally apply.
2. Assume that your first estimate is off the mark.
3. Think about a few reasons why that could be. Which assumptions and considerations could have been wrong? What do these new considerations imply? Was the first estimate rather too high or too low?
4. Based on this new perspective, make a second, alternative estimate.
Then average the two estimates to get a new dialectic estimate – based on the
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