Interesting work done by Stefan Herzog & Hertwig, R. (2009) on how to apply a form of wisdom of crowds, but when there is only one person. They call it dialectic bootstrapping.
The idea is that when you have to make an estimate of a potential value, such as a date, a numeric value a percentage etc, you follow this procedure:
1. Make your first estimate. This should be done in the way you would normally make an estimate; with as much thought and consideration you would normally apply.
2. Assume that your first estimate is off the mark.
3. Think about a few reasons why that could be. Which assumptions and considerations could have been wrong? What do these new considerations imply? Was the first estimate rather too high or too low?
4. Based on this new perspective, make a second, alternative estimate.
Then average the two estimates to get a new dialectic estimate – based on the internal dialog one has had about the potential value. Their research shows that the average of the two estimates produces more accurate results than can be achieved by either of the two independent estimates.
Although they describe this, any technique that prompts people to generate the dialectical estimate using knowledge that is at least partly different from the knowledge they used to generate the first estimate can suffice.
As they say: “Dialectical bootstrapping is a simple mental tool that fosters accuracy by leveraging people’s capacity to construct conflicting realities.”
So in effect there is a potential benefit of being in two minds about a subject. It is interesting that an internal dialogue will help us to make better decisions. We know from other work that an ability to view the world through different eyes and to take this into account when forming opinions or courses of action can improve the final outcome. Now we have a technique to apply this to a numeric process.
